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Picking a Horse |
| The internet provides people with so much information about horses. This is meant to help you in decide which horse to back, and why. But now it can take ages to go through reams of form, analysis of races, ratings, all at a ever growing amount of horse races. Some days have ten meetings on one day during the summer, and it can take ages to go through. You then notice the next day, you missed a horse you were following, and it won! It can drive you barmy with all the information on offer, but all you need to do is keep things simple as possible. Here is some bullet points for you to focus on, and cut down wasted time. 1. Use the most recent form. 2. Take note of the weather. 3. Take note of the Going. 4. Look at the course. 5. Look at the distance. 6. Is there a drawn Bias? 7. Look for any Trends. 8. Look at the weight carried. 9. Look at the Class of race. There are more, but I'm trying to bulletpoint the main things to concentrate on. Lets have a look in more detail as to what I mean. With a horse that I will make up- Jumping Jack You are looking at Jumping Jack in a 3 mile race at Cheltenham. In its previous four races it has 3 previous wins at Aintree and Stratford, all on good going at races between a distance of 2 mile 4, and 2 mile 6. The previous night and early morning it’s been raining heavily. Should you bet the horse this time? The bond between form and weather is very important. Remember that heavy, or soft going produces upsets. The firmer the going, and sunnier the weather, the more exact the form. Lets put it in a way you will instantly remember - Bookmakers like softer, heavy going, especially with big fields. So one thing is to look at is whether Jumping Jack is a horse that likes good going, or the rain and softer going. These horses are called Mudlarks, and you will need to check the form to see if there are any wins on softer heavy going. If there is, then that’s a positive. But if Jumping Jack has won, or been placed in any races that has had good going, then this will be a negative for this race, as the going is soft. In General, when the ground is really wet, most horses do not run as well, as the horses hooves get stuck in the sticky mud as they run. The form is more innacurate, at wetter the going. Whilst the form can look complicated, it really isn't. If I can understand it, then you can! Always look at the most recent form, last years form is last year! Try to take notice of the form from the last few months if possible, and look at this season. If you notice that the horse is progressing well, then that is another positive. So we know Jumping Jack is running well, he has won a couple of the last races. However, Jumping Jack’s wins have come at around the 2½ mile mark. This race is 3 miles, and the extra distance is a unknown for Jumping Jack, so that is a minus. He also looks like he has not yet run at Cheltenham, but has run at Aintree and Stratford. You may have heard of the saying 'Horses for courses' and this is because some horses prefer certain tracks. He may love Stratford, and dislike the course at Cheltenham, so the course is an unknown. Being a 3 mile jump race, there is no draw bias, this is only found on shorter distance flat races. The trends may be for horses that like an undulating course (a track that goes up and down and is not even) We know that Jumping Jack likes Aintree, so that's a plus. Has the weight been increased because of previous wins? Compare the weights, and look to see if he has gone up in class of race. If there is a 'yes' to any of these, then that would go against him. Should you have the bet? Well, I don't think he will be favourite, and you need to look at the competition in as much detail, so I’ll leave that decision up to you! From time to time, you can get everything right, and the horse gets brought down by another horse. This is were I do the hard work, so you don't have to! Try to regulary use The Racing Post, you will find the form clear, and they have a index to abbreviation to help explain how the form is set out and what all the different figures mean. One last point, just because a horse has lots of 1's next to the form, it does not mean that the race it is now in, is a match to the last race it won. It may be a different class race, it may be on the All-weather, it my not be a handicap. |
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